Inferring COVID-19 cases from deaths of confirmed cases

Jombart, TORCID logo, Abbott, SORCID logo, Gimma, AORCID logo, Zandvoort, K, Clifford, SORCID logo, Jarvis, CORCID logo, Russell, TORCID logo, Funk, SORCID logo, Gibbs, HORCID logo, Eggo, RMORCID logo, Kucharski, AJORCID logo, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group and Edmunds, WJORCID logo (2020). Inferring COVID-19 cases from deaths of confirmed cases. [Dataset]. CMMID Repository. https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/inferring-covid19-cases-from-deaths
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Aim: To estimate the numbers of circulating COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths, in places where surveillance has not revealed COVID-19 infections yet. Rationale: Deaths of COVID-19 cases are indicative of wider circulation of the disease in a population. As the delay from onset to death and the case fatality ratio (CFR) have been characterised, we can infer the likely date of onset of a death, and the number of other cases (1/CFR) that had onset at the same time. From there, we use a branching process model to simulate epidemic growth, and derive estimates of the likely number of cases at present.

Keywords

COVID-19, Coronavirus, Epidemic, Branching process

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