Inferring COVID-19 cases from deaths of confirmed cases
Jombart, T
, Abbott, S
, Gimma, A
, Zandvoort, K, Clifford, S
, Jarvis, C
, Russell, T
, Funk, S
, Gibbs, H
, Eggo, RM
, Kucharski, AJ
, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group and Edmunds, WJ
(2020).
Inferring COVID-19 cases from deaths of confirmed cases.
[Dataset].
CMMID Repository.
https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/inferring-covid19-cases-from-deaths
Aim: To estimate the numbers of circulating COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths, in places where surveillance has not revealed COVID-19 infections yet.
Rationale: Deaths of COVID-19 cases are indicative of wider circulation of the disease in a population. As the delay from onset to death and the case fatality ratio (CFR) have been characterised, we can infer the likely date of onset of a death, and the number of other cases (1/CFR) that had onset at the same time. From there, we use a branching process model to simulate epidemic growth, and derive estimates of the likely number of cases at present.
Keywords
COVID-19, Coronavirus, Epidemic, Branching processItem Type | Dataset |
---|---|
Capture method | Simulation |
Date | 3 March 2020 |
Language(s) of written materials | English |
Creator(s) |
Jombart, T |
LSHTM Faculty/Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023) |
Research Centre | Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases |
Participating Institutions | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom |
Date Deposited | 22 Apr 2020 15:38 |
Last Modified | 20 Aug 2021 14:37 |
Publisher | CMMID Repository |
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2226-8692
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-8037
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ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3774-3882
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0812-2446
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ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0362-6717
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8814-9421
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9179-2917