The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue
, Golding, N, Kraemer, MU, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Davis Weaver, N, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner Jr, RC and Hay, SI
(2019).
The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue.
[Dataset].
Nature Microbiology.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-019-0476-8
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world’s population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
Keywords
occurrence database, dengue, global| Item Type | Dataset |
|---|---|
| Capture method | Experiment |
| Date | 10 June 2019 |
| Language(s) of written materials | English |
| Creator(s) |
Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MU, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Davis Weaver, N, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner Jr, RC and Hay, SI
|
| LSHTM Faculty/Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023) |
| Participating Institutions | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine |
| Funders |
Project Funder Grant Number Funder URI |
| Date Deposited | 26 Jul 2019 08:51 |
| Last Modified | 08 Jul 2021 12:49 |
| Publisher | Nature Microbiology |
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