Kucharski, AJ, Russell, TW, Diamond, C, CMMID nCoV working group, Funk, S and Eggo, RM. 2020. Probability of a large 2019-nCoV outbreak following introduction of cases. [Online]. Github. Available from: https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/new-outbreak-probability
Kucharski, AJ, Russell, TW, Diamond, C, CMMID nCoV working group, Funk, S and Eggo, RM. Probability of a large 2019-nCoV outbreak following introduction of cases [Internet]. Github; 2020. Available from: https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/new-outbreak-probability
Kucharski, AJ, Russell, TW, Diamond, C, CMMID nCoV working group, Funk, S and Eggo, RM (2020). Probability of a large 2019-nCoV outbreak following introduction of cases. [Data Collection]. Github. https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/new-outbreak-probability
Description
This analysis uses a model that incorporates randomness and individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. potential for 'superspreading') to calculate the probability that a given number of independently introduced cases in a new location will eventually lead to a large outbreak. (Source: Lloyd-Smith et al, Nature, 2005). There are two key values to explore: the reproduction number in the new location (i.e. average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious individual); and individual-level variation in transmission - do all cases generate similar numbers of secondary cases, or do most generate few and some lots? Infections with more individual-level variation (such as SARS) lead to more fragile initial transmission chains, and hence are overall less likely to spark a large outbreak following an introduced case (although they can lead to rapidly growing outbreaks if by chance transmission does take hold. The random-mixing option in the drop-down menu assumes transmission occurs at random with similar secondary cases from all individuals.
Keywords
Data capture method | Simulation |
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Date (Date published in a 3rd party system) | 31 January 2020 |
Language(s) of written materials | English |
Data Creators | Kucharski, AJ, Russell, TW, Diamond, C, CMMID nCoV working group, Funk, S and Eggo, RM |
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LSHTM Faculty/Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology |
Research Centre | Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases |
Participating Institutions | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom |
Date Deposited | 22 Apr 2020 15:48 |
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Last Modified | 08 Jul 2021 12:52 |
Publisher | Github |