Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak

Kucharski, AJ, Funk, S, Eggo, RM, Mallet, H, Edmunds, WJ and Nilles, EJ. 2016. Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak. [Online]. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726.

Kucharski, AJ, Funk, S, Eggo, RM, Mallet, H, Edmunds, WJ and Nilles, EJ. Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak. [Internet] LSHTM Data Compass. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases; 2016. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726.

Kucharski, AJ, Funk, S, Eggo, RM, Mallet, H, Edmunds, WJ and Nilles, EJ (2016). Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak. [Data Collection]. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004726.

Description

Description of data capture We used weekly reported numbers of suspected ZIKV infections from the six main regions of French Polynesia between 11th October 2013 and 28th March 2014, as detailed in the Centre d’hygiène et de salubrité publique situation reports. Confirmed and suspected cases were reported from sentinel surveillance sites across the country; the number of such sentinel sites varied in number from 27–55 during the outbreak (raw data are provided in S1 Dataset). Clinical cases were defined as suspected cases if they presented to health practitioners with rash and/or mild fever and at least two of the following signs: conjunctivitis, arthralgia, or oedema. Suspected cases were defined as a confirmed case if they tested positive by RT-PCR on blood or saliva. In total, 8,744 suspected cases were reported from the sentinel sites. As there were 162 healthcare sites across all six regions, it has been estimated that around 30,000 suspected cases attended health facilities in total For each region, we calculated the proportion of total sites that acted as sentinels, to allow us to adjust for variation in reporting over time in the analysis. Population size data were taken from the 2012 French Polynesia Census. In our analysis, the first week with at least one reported case was used as the first observation date. We used a compartmental mathematical model to simulate vector-borne transmission. Both people and mosquitoes were modelled using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) framework. This model incorporated delays as a result of the intrinsic (human) and extrinsic (vector) incubation periods (Fig 1). Since there is evidence that asymptomatic DENV-infected individuals are capable of transmitting DENV to mosquitoes [26], we assumed the same for ZIKV: all people in the model transmitted the same, regardless of whether they displayed symptoms or were reported as cases.
Data capture method Simulation
Date (Published in a 3rd party system) 17 May 2016
Language(s) of written materials English
Data Creators Kucharski, AJ, Funk, S, Eggo, RM, Mallet, H, Edmunds, WJ and Nilles, EJ
LSHTM Faculty/Department Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Participating Institutions London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Bureau de Veille Sanitaire, Direction de la Santé, Polynésie française, World Health Organization, Suva, Fiji
Funders
ProjectFunderGrant NumberFunder URI
UNSPECIFIEDMedical Research CouncilMR/K021524/1; MR/K021680/1UNSPECIFIED
Depositor LSHTM Library & Archives Service
Date Deposited 23 Jun 2016 10:44
Last Modified 05 Jun 2017 08:56
Publisher PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

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Data

Filename: S1_Dataset.csv

Description: Raw data used in the analysis. Dataset contains number of suspected cases, number of sentinel sites reporting, and proportion of total sentinel sites reporting (i.e. κt) in each week for each of the six regions studied.

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Content type: Dataset

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