Projections of heat related mortality under combined climate and socioeconomic adaptation scenarios for England and Wales

This study projects heat-related mortality in England and Wales at Government region level under combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios, focusing on the implications of different pathways on adaptive capacity and resilience. Using UK specific climate projections and socioeconomic narratives, and employing a timeseries regression analysis we estimated the impacts of consistent pairs of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) on future heat-related health burdens. Our findings indicate significant increases in heat-related mortality under high emissions scenarios, with the highest burden observed in the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario (2050s: 10,317, 2060s: 19,478, 2070s: 34,027), due to combined high temperatures and population growth and ageing in this scenario. Conversely, the lowest burden is seen under RCP2.6-SSP1 (2050s: 3,007, 2060s: 4,004, 2070s: 4,592), reflecting effective adaptation and lower warming levels. These values represent an increases from a baseline of 634 annual heat related deaths (1981–2021). The contribution of individual drivers, regional variations and the impact of potential power outages during heatwaves were also examined. These projections highlight the combined role of mitigation and adaptation, with a focus on resilience, in response to climate change and demonstrate that adaptation beyond the observed bounds will be required to limit heat related mortality to the baseline level even under low emission scenarios.

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