This repository provides code to conduct an analysis of polio surveillance data, assessing risk, sensitivity of poliovirus detection and the probability of elimination from a bounded region. It builds upon principles described in O'Reilly et al 2020 and the data cleaning and immunity modelling in Voorman et al 2023. The analysis approach is described in full in Nightingale et al (2025), along with the results of a validation against the evaluation of wild poliovirus elimination in Nigeria between 2014 and 2020.