Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease: Supplementary Data

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data_visualisation indefinite Daily incidence time series of Ebola virus disease onsets in 1976 779 2 3570 document 779 Figure2.jpg image/jpeg d04835be3da1ad63f0a6a6f5b04a262120584b19bbf418b80136492973bf18c3 SHA256 14297 2016-01-21 14:23:47 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/2/Figure2.jpg 142 2 2 image/jpeg Image en public cc_by

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data_visualisation indefinite Comparison of our fitted model and observed daily incidence time series (black dots) reconstructed from the line list of Ebola cases in Zaire in 1976 781 2 3574 document 781 Figure4.jpg image/jpeg 96ac53e78e7ebd96f460918765ef6e19c910ac44d0bd47454067d0376492f850 SHA256 67470 2016-01-21 14:23:51 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/4/Figure4.jpg 142 4 4 image/jpeg Image en public cc_by

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data_visualisation indefinite Drop in the reproduction number (R(t)) owing to change of behaviour in community contacts and visit of outpatients to the hospital 782 2 3576 document 782 Figure5.jpg image/jpeg 027ef2eb6984bb14f59b3a816c31ce26f6188b0f6cb1743b07a69ddab96c4f19 SHA256 159058 2016-01-21 14:23:54 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/5/Figure5.jpg 142 5 5 image/jpeg Image en public cc_by

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data indefinite MMC2 - Supplementary data. See paper for context 787 3 3586 document 787 table1.csv text/plain 9c5ac5c7322e6f9a1dcfe82949686a3fc94f97d95d77a1b7e131e92f028a61d7 SHA256 523 2016-01-21 14:24:51 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/10/table1.csv 142 10 10 text/plain Dataset en public cc_by

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data indefinite Previously published estimates of basic reproduction number, R0, for Ebola 788 2 3588 document 788 table2.csv text/plain 214c5f763bf280c6a9670982b3fa4ce533ca13db156b9cf2cbf1626669f80e5c SHA256 1975 2016-01-21 14:24:54 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/11/table2.csv 142 11 11 text/plain Dataset en public cc_by

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data indefinite Parameter definitions and corresponding estimates. Prior distributions used during model fitting are also shown 789 3 3590 document 789 table3.csv text/plain 1a995b51ecb13c862b85b18600c8e69471d0627c2c27729b8f94cc39b6a396c2 SHA256 344 2016-01-21 14:24:56 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/12/table3.csv 142 12 12 text/plain Dataset en public cc_by

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data indefinite Estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, split into different component transmission routes. 790 2 3595 document 790 SupplementaryMaterial.pdf application/pdf 9ebc9d9f9b0f975c4e012d85c324ee6d4b2dc01f740abff1456987bac5dedfb7 SHA256 2827404 2016-01-21 14:37:17 https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/142/13/SupplementaryMaterial.pdf 142 13 13 application/pdf Text en public cc_by

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/document/790 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/document/790 http://eprints.org/relation/issmallThumbnailVersionOf https://datacompass.lshtm.ac.uk/id/document/790 indefinite Thumbnails conversion from Text to thumbnail_small archive 3 disk0/00/00/01/42 2016-01-21 14:38:05 2022-04-27 18:19:09 2016-01-21 14:38:05 data_collection show Camacho Anton 0000-0002-0023-3985 FALSE c71814a1d8dde5a9700466a3fa51507d Kucharski Adam 0000-0001-8814-9421 FALSE a1dc2f7ec42bb0301d0fa93d37bd500f Funk Sebastian 0000-0002-2842-3406 FALSE 6db8a0ab957b8fcc816ad73b6f55ef73 Breman J FALSE Piot Peter FALSE 9b66109f1572495149da880e67bacf4a Edmunds John 0000-0002-9179-2917 FALSE 3c11a3a890da37a58a5f575c670687f4 London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK National Institutes of Health, United States Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease: Supplementary Data EPID Ebola Zaire outbreak Mathematical model Basic reproduction number Outbreaks of Ebola virus can cause substantial morbidity and mortality in affected regions. The largest outbreak of Ebola to date is currently underway in West Africa, with 3944 cases reported as of 5th September 2014. To develop a better understanding of Ebola transmission dynamics, we revisited data from the first known Ebola outbreak, which occurred in 1976 in Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo). By fitting a mathematical model to time series stratified by disease onset, outcome and source of infection, we were able to estimate several epidemiological quantities that have previously proved challenging to measure, including the contribution of hospital and community infection to transmission. We found evidence that transmission decreased considerably before the closure of the hospital, suggesting that the decline of the outbreak was most likely the result of changes in host behaviour. Our analysis suggests that the person-to-person reproduction number was 1.34 (95% CI: 0.92–2.11) in the early part of the outbreak. Using stochastic simulations we demonstrate that the same epidemiological conditions that were present in 1976 could have generated a large outbreak purely by chance. At the same time, the relatively high person-to-person basic reproduction number suggests that Ebola would have been difficult to control through hospital-based infection control measures alone. 2014-10-21 published London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 10.17037/DATA.27 Dataset London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine National Institutes of Health, United States CompilationSynthesis public London, United Kingdom Medical Research Council Dataset Quantitative MR/J01432X/1; MR/K021524/1; MR/K021680/1 2.1782 18.0945 -3.50999 13.2825 en 1976-08 1976-11 ScienceDirect http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.003 paper Potential for large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease. http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2030883 Medical Research Council MR/J01432X/1; MR/K021524/1; MR/K021680/1 MR/J01432X/1; MR/K021524/1; MR/K021680/1 2014-10-21