Table 2.
        Parameter definitions and corresponding estimates. Prior distributions used during model fitting are also shown.
Parameter,Description,Prior,Estimates: median (95% CI)
N,Population size,Fixed,60<comma> 000
T0,Date of introduction of index case to H compartment,<MathML>,August 24 (August 21–August 24)
Th,Date of hospital closure,Fixed,September 30
ρonset,Proportion of onsets reported,<MathML>,0.70 (0.62–0.79)
ρd,Proportion of death reported,<MathML>,0.89 (0.80–0.97)
ρr,Proportion of recovery reported,<MathML>,0.28 (0.19–0.39)
κ,Proportion of cases hospitalised until hospital closure,<MathML>,0.21 (0.14–0.30)
ϕ,Case–fatality ratio,<MathML>,0.88 (0.80–0.94)
1/ϵ,Incubation period (days),<MathML>,5.99 (5.80–6.18)
1/γh,Mean time from onset to hospitalisation (days),<MathML>,3.00 (2.81–3.20)
1/γd,Mean time from onset to death (days),<MathML>,7.49 (7.30–7.69)
1/γr,Mean time from onset to recovery (days),<MathML>,10.00 (9.80–10.19)
1/μb,Mean time from death to burial (days),<MathML>,0.99 (0.80–1.18)
βi,Transmission rate in the community at the onset of the epidemic,<MathML>,0.10 (0.01–0.20)
βd,Transmission rate during traditional burial at the onset of the epidemic,<MathML>,0.78 (0.08–2.00)
αpp,Shape of the change of person-to-person contact behaviour in community and during traditional burial,<MathML>,0.30 (0.14–4.17)
τpp,Midpoint date for the change of person-to-person contact behaviour,<MathML>,September 27 (September 20–October 03)
δpp,Reduction of the person-to-person transmission rate following change of contact behaviour (%),<MathML>,98.00 (90.00–100.00)
βh,Transmission rate in hospital at the onset of the epidemic,<MathML>,3.24 (2.36–4.43)
αh,Shape of the change of hospital seeking behaviour from outpatients,<MathML>,2.29 (0.49–4.85)
τh,Midpoint date for the change of hospital seeking behaviour,<MathML>,September 17 (September 14–September 19)